Since 2013, I’ve been car-free, enjoying the immense walkability of cities like Denver and San Diego. Moreover, for treks over six miles or so, I have amassed nearly 1,200 passenger trips during this period with the ride service Lyft. Light rail trains, buses, and scooters are also a part of my suite of options.
Amid growing numbers of workers opting to either work exclusively at home or on a hybrid workplace schedule, I believe we are entering into a new world of mobility options. For perspectives on this, Great Books, Great Cities reached out to author Sam Schwartz for his perspectives on this new movement that’s afoot.
As the founder of Sam Schwartz Consulting, a leading transportation, planning, and advisory firm, Schwartz’s mission is to build a safe, more sustainable, liveable future — for everyone. He has authored a number of books, including “No One at the Wheel: Driverless Cars and the Road of the Future” and “Street Smart: The Rise of Cities and the Fall of Cars.”
As one of America's most recognized transportation thought-leaders, “No One at the Wheel” offers a futuristic look at the self-driving cars revolution, the impact of which, says Schwartz, will be dramatic and disruptive. He points, for example, to the autonomous innovations in the trucking industry, a job market where one in seven Americans work.
All of this he believes will cause us to grapple with new ethical and existential dilemmas — self-driving cars striking pedestrians and buildings as well as endangering the lives of passengers. Moreover, these vehicles, asserts Schwartz, will further erode our privacy since the vehicles can track our whereabouts at any moment. And like any digitally controlled apparatus, these cars can be vulnerable to hacking by nefarious actors.
Currently, says Schwartz, every major car maker in the U.S. and abroad is on a quest to usher in a new world of autonomous vehicles to everyday people. Once the evolution of this movement hits full swing, our world will never be the same, which the book “No One at the Wheel” explores.
All of this takes place on a backdrop of Americans who statistics show are driving fewer and fewer miles. Schwartz cites evidence that this is not an affordability issue but rather a lifestyle decision, where a person like me decides to opt for mobility alternatives like walking, cycling, or public transportation.
It’s here where Schwartz believes that an urban transformation is underway, with these themes covered in his other book entitled “Smart Street.” He believes that this evolution will among other things further boost property values, enhance personal fitness, roll back years of congestion and smog, and transform American life.
Below I asked Schwartz a brief set of questions where he further expounds upon these rapidly emerging mobility shifts in today’s built environment.
What sorts of post-pandemic trends are you keeping a close eye on in terms of our nation’s rapidly shifting transportation narrative?
The trends we have been witnessing since 2000 have been very different from the trends from the previous 100 years. 2000-2010 saw the first decrease in vehicle miles traveled in a century (short of war, financial crisis, or gas lines). This was largely due to educated millennials eschewing driving and moving to cities. As I show in my book Street Smart: The Rise of Cities and the Fall of Cars, they drove 20-25% fewer miles per capita than previous generations of the same age.
Can you describe what’s been occurring in more recent years?
2010 to 2019 was the decade of Uber/Lyft et al. and micro deliveries. Transit usage rose (up to about 2017) and even with reduced general traffic in some cities. Moreover, travel speeds declined because of all the For-Hire Vehicles (FHVs) that stay in motion all day long. In fact, I did a study in the 1980s that highlighted how slowed speeds in Midtown Manhattan were most closely related to the number of vehicles in motion.
How has the pandemic influenced this narrative?
Covid led to a decline in transit ridership even though numerous studies found little to no correlation between transit and airborne diseases including Covid. Many of those abandoning transit looked for individual transport options like Vespa-like scooters, stand-up electric scooters, bikes and e-bikes, hover-type electric powered boards, single-wheel electric vehicles, and more.
What has been the response to all of this by cities?
Cities were caught flat-footed again. A degree of lawlessness with these vehicles, including use on sidewalks, has caused numerous conflicts. Covid measures also redefined the curb lane in many cities for uses other than parking such as restaurant seating, bike, and bus lanes, and sidewalk extensions which exacerbated delivery problems.
Switching topics just a bit, where are we at present in terms of the trajectory of the driverless car movement?
About 5 years ago I met with a major car manufacturer in Detroit. They said, “we are always 5 years away from full self-driving.” That is still the case. More and more manufacturers and developers are acknowledging that with some saying AVs will never be able to do everything that conventional cars do now.
What are some of the major barriers hindering adoption?
Every fraction of a second in driving requires attention to numerous details. At any moment a child can dart out, the weather can change, the car in front suddenly makes a U-turn, and a bike rider is wobbling ahead.
Fortunately, we are, for the most part, able to respond safely as long as we are attentive and not impaired. A traffic fatality occurs about every 80- 90 million miles of driving. For a safe, above-average driver (90% of drivers are above average, in their own minds) fatality rates are probably well over 100 million miles driven.
So that’s a high bar to exceed. For an AV to be safer it probably needs to be twice as safe or even more. The field testing to date in actual driving conditions doesn’t support the argument that today’s AVs are safer or as safe as conventional vehicles. In fact, they get into crashes more than 10 times as often. And while no good data exists, I believe their fatality rate is much higher.
What sort of mobility infrastructure solutions are you currently making a push for these days?
Cities need to be designed around people- not vehicles. I see a hierarchy in cities with pedestrians being at the very top and most efficient. I'm a big advocate of transit and see a new opportunity with trackless trams that have yet to arrive in the US. Micro-mobility is a bit of a conundrum. On the other hand, mini-mobility, like e-rickshaws, does, however, make a lot of sense in business districts. Bottom line — cities don’t know what to do with all these new modes, many of which aren’t recognized by state DMVs. I’d like to help figure all of this out.
Finally, how in your view can we in this age of increasing walkability ensure pedestrian safety?
I recommend cities look at the street widths of sidewalks from a century + ago and try to restore them along with narrowing crossing distances. Install pedestrian refuge areas on wide streets. Give pedestrians a head start crossing using Leading Pedestrian Intervals (LPIs invented in NYC). Design streets for slow traffic (i.e. narrow lanes, serpentine where possible, etc.) where pedestrians cross in significant numbers.